Homepic-scenariosOur partners come from a wide variety of backgrounds and represent a host of objectives and interests. Despite these differences, they are all united in one thing—they need to understand as best they can the challenges and opportunities that a highly uncertain and largely unpredictable future will bring.

Because no one can truly predict the future, Cranfield has established a full program of future research capabilities that we refer to as scenario building. We analyze the complex and interconnected reality of today in order to determine potential changes leading to different possible “versions” of the future. These versions are referred to individually as scenarios.

Scenario building aims to provide our partners with the tools they need to assess their skills, resources, institutions, and policies in terms of how they will come into play in a wide range of possible futures. Utilizing a holistic approach including stakeholder workshops, expert elicitation, and computer-based modeling, we create a spectrum of plausible alternative futures associated with system developments taking place right now. Our research seeks to establish a context for dialogue and encourage foresight in the decision making process, providing a framework under which the robustness of strategies and policy approaches can be accurately assessed.

As one aspect of scenario building, we hold participatory workshops to draw insights from a wide range of stakeholders. These workshops target specific groups that are related to the issues at hand and facilitate open deliberation, thus strengthening stakeholder networks via a free exchange of information. These workshops are transdisciplinary and create opportunities for output to inform policy development and other institutional change in the long term.

To learn more about scenario building and what Cranfield is able to do for your organization, please do not hesitate to Kenisha Garnett or Joao Delgado.